The COVID-19 Tsunami

Not always is the first wave of a tsunami the one that hits hardest. The same might be true for the COVID-19 infection.

Some are right IN the wave, while others are still waiting for the peak to come. In contrast, China is already AFTER its peak. But have they seen the worst?

The rebound wave

Nearly half of all new cases in mainland China now are coming from abroad. The same is true for Hong Kong, where 90% of cases are imported. Even though China has reported over 80.000 cases (mainly in the south east), by far most Chinese do not have immunity. A second wave of infection is definitely possible. Chinese authorities are aware of the problem and are implementing strict measures to prevent an influx of new cases through travel. 

Scenarios

I see several potential scenarios, which might all come into play

• The change of climate as the northern hemisphere moves towards summer will mitigate transmission and help to dampen the transmission. There is some data that would suggest this.
• The pandemic will spread, faster in some than in other countries, and we will gradually see an increase in immunity, which will ultimately halt the transmission.
• A vaccine will be developed that will bring the pandemic to an end. 

But until SARS CoV-2 is finally defeated, we will see many more cases and considerable restrictions in our daily life and travel.  

What can we do?

What are some of the things we as healthcare providers can do? 

Motivate the community to take all precautionary measures possible; learn more about the COVID-19 disease; and share our knowledge and experience with others.

Tomorrow I will share a unique symptom that pops up frequently in patients infected with COVID-19

Best, Thomas

Edited 2020-04-04 03:27 CEST